The Real Data on 2026 Mile Values: American Up 14%, But Here's What Airlines Don't Want You to Know

Everyone screams devaluation. The data says otherwise.

We pulled TPG’s data-backed valuations across four snapshots from May 2024 to March 2026, cross-referenced them with NerdWallet, View from the Wing, and LendingTree, and found something that contradicts the loudest voices in this hobby: most major US airline miles are worth more today than they were five years ago. American AAdvantage is up 14%. United MileagePlus is up 8%. Delta SkyMiles, the program everyone loves to hate, is up 9%.

But here is the part no one is saying out loud. Averages are liars.

The Headline Numbers

TPG shifted from editorial opinion to a methodology analyzing tens of thousands of real bookings in late 2021. That matters. Pre-2021 valuations were vibes. Post-2021 valuations are at least anchored to transaction data. Here is what the trajectory looks like:

Four of six programs are flat or up. NerdWallet independently confirmed the trend, finding that airline mile values have increased for every major program except Southwest since 2020. That is not a devaluation story. That is a stability story.

So why does every forum thread read like a funeral?

What the Averages Hide

Because averages smooth out the pain. The aggregate cpp may hold steady while the specific redemption you actually want gets gutted. Dynamic pricing is the mechanism. Zero US airlines maintain fixed award charts anymore. That means the 1.60cpp average on American includes the person who redeemed DFW to NRT in business for 60,000 miles at 3.2cpp and the person who paid 47,000 miles for a $280 domestic economy ticket at 0.6cpp.

Both count toward the average. Only one is a good deal.

This is what airlines do not want you to internalize. The average valuation can rise while the floor collapses. Dynamic pricing lets programs deliver occasional spectacular value while charging near-cash rates on 80% of inventory. The headline number goes up. Your typical redemption does not.

The Source Divergence Problem

No single outlet should be your gospel. Look at how four independent sources disagree on the same programs right now:

American has a 0.40cpp spread across sources. That is a 33% disagreement. If you are making purchase decisions based on “AAdvantage miles are worth 1.60cpp,” you might be operating on a number that is 14% to 33% inflated depending on which methodology you trust.

Alaska is the most interesting story in this table. Tight consensus across all three sources, highest cross-source average, and a clear upward trajectory from 1.45cpp in January 2025 to 1.70cpp in March 2026. That 17% jump in 14 months is the strongest move in the dataset. For context, we analyzed Alaska’s recent buy miles promotion at 1.25cpp and found it made mathematical sense precisely because the redemption floor is high. When you can reliably extract 1.60cpp or better, buying at 1.25cpp is a guaranteed arbitrage.

Delta, meanwhile, shows the tightest spread: only 0.10cpp disagreement. Everyone agrees Delta miles are worth less per unit than the competition. The consistency is almost reassuring. You know exactly what you are getting. Not much.

The Portfolio Math You Should Actually Run

Stop asking “what are my miles worth” as an abstract question. Start asking “what is my next redemption worth.”

Here is a concrete example. You have 100,000 American miles. At the cross-source average of 1.40cpp, that portfolio is worth $1,400. But if your next trip is LAX to MIA in economy and dynamic pricing quotes you 22,000 miles for a $187 ticket, your effective cpp is 0.85. Your portfolio is only delivering $850 of value at that rate.

Conversely, if you hold those same 100,000 miles for a Doha to JFK business class redemption through a oneworld partner at 70,000 miles for a $4,200 ticket, your effective cpp is 6.0. Same miles, seven times the value.

This variance is the feature, not the bug. Airlines want you to burn miles on low-value domestic redemptions. The “devaluation” people feel is not the average declining. It is the low end getting worse while the high end stays stable or improves. Airlines are widening the spread.

For those holding Alaska miles specifically, the 2026 devaluation analysis is worth reading carefully. Even programs trending upward in average valuations can introduce category-specific hits that crater the redemptions you personally care about.

What This Means for Earning Strategy

If average valuations are stable but variance is expanding, the correct response is concentration, not diversification. Pick the program where you can consistently access the high end of the redemption curve. For most readers, that means:

1. Alaska Mileage Plan: 1.70cpp average, tight source consensus, strong partner chart
2. American AAdvantage: 1.40cpp average but wide variance; great if you target premium international
3. United MileagePlus: 1.30cpp average, solid Polaris availability, but LendingTree pegs it at just 1.10cpp
4. Delta SkyMiles: 1.13cpp average; only compelling for SkyTeam premium cabin on specific routes

Bottom Line

The devaluation narrative is wrong on average and right on the margins. Aggregate mile values are flat or up across every major US program since 2021. American is up 14%. Alaska is up to 1.70cpp with three-source consensus. Even Delta ticked from 1.10 to 1.20cpp, a 9% gain.

But “average cpp” is a fiction you never actually redeem at. What matters is your redemption strategy. Airlines are widening the gap between best-case and worst-case values. The top quartile of redemptions is better than ever. The bottom quartile is approaching worthless.

Do not panic-sell your miles because someone online said devaluation. Do the math on your actual next trip. If you cannot find a redemption above 1.5cpp, hold. If you can find one above 2.0cpp, book immediately. The averages are fine. Your specific redemption is the only number that matters.